美国大选打“中国牌”图谋已失效，打压中国不会让美国更伟大（附双语视频）

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编者按：2020年10月20日，中美两国智库举行在线对话。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、中美人文交流研究中心执行主任王文做了主旨发言，他表示，美国朋友需要清楚，时代不一样了，大国关系早已超越了现实主义，谁都不可能是下一个霸权国家。以下为发言视频及实录（中英双语）。

王文主旨发言视频（中英双语）

很高兴受邀发言。在这里又见到李成教授、Zack Cooper博士等老朋友。这一节讨论的题目是“美国总统选举中的中国牌”。我想借此表达五个观点：

第一，两位总统候选人打“中国牌”，并没有起到作用。这里尤其是指特朗普总统。他企图通过批评中国，转移选民对其抗疫失败的注意力，希望营造中国“敌人”，来凝聚美国社会的团结。中国没有上当。美国选举日前一个月，中心话题不是“中国”，而是新冠疫情与两位候选人的个人丑闻。中国没有与美国展开激烈的战斗，而是有礼有节地反制，不愿意牵引美国舆论的焦点。同时，美国国内的问题太大，包括政治内斗、经济衰退、社会分裂、种族歧视、疫情失控等等，“中国牌”不足掩盖这些问题。这充分说明，打“中国牌”大选策略已失败了。

第二，特朗普总统试图与中国打“新冷战”的策略也没有成功。按照国际学术界对“冷战”定义的四大标准看，即全面对抗、意识形态对立、两大阵营、经济“脱钩”。但目前看来，中美两国的状态离新冷战还很远。尽管特朗普每天都在指着中国，但中国却保持着克制，除了外交部被迫回应外，中国领导人一直对美国保持着沉默。这并不是不敢，而是有更多的战略思维，不愿意两国陷入新冷战。相反，中国一直在呼吁两国合作。

令人庆幸的是，两国社会一直在合作。中美两国贸易同比在增长，好于2019年；中国公司赴美上市筹集资金的数额，前8个月超过2019年总额。美资（比如高盛、摩根士丹利、摩根大通）在中国金融市场的持有量也超过2019年。这背后是中国全面深化改革与扩大开放的战略以及中国市场的吸引力。

第三，中美摩擦在未来10年或更久会成为新常态。我将其称为“竞合状态”。中国已做好充足的心理准备。中国能理解美国的焦虑。美国一直怀疑中国会取代美国的领导力。时间会证明这种怀疑。事实上，二战以后由美国领衔的国际秩序，中国一直都是强有力的支持者。在2008年国际金融危机以及2020年新冠疫情期，如果没有中国，美国的情况会更糟糕。比如，过去8个月，中国向美国出口了超过400亿支口罩，人均超过100个。中国不是怕美国，而是希望用务实的行动，打消美国的焦虑。

第四，中国短期内不奢望成为美国的好友，但也不愿意当美国的敌人。中国不会第二个苏联、第二个伊朗，从1979年建交以来，中国就一直不愿意把美国当成敌人。当然，中国也不可能成为日本、英国，成为美国的盟友。中国的策略是，希望与美国求同存异，尽可能地合作，有限地竞争。中国有能力捍卫本国的核心利益，美国想打压中国，自己会付出更大的代价。

第五，美国把中国当敌人的战略，肯定不会使美国更伟大。美国的敌人有许多，包括在海外的ISIS、基地组织，还有在美国国内的新冠病毒、种族问题、枪支问题、华尔街问题等等。努力解决那些问题，美国才会更伟大。打压中国，美国经济会越来越糟糕，利益会越来越受到损害，国际秩序会越来越乱，最终只会让美国越来越渺小。

目前，中国已基本控制住了疫情。中国第三季度经济增长为4.9%，是全球最好的。2020年中国将成为全球最大的消费市场。中国仍然是美国的机遇，是世界的机遇。

美国朋友需要清楚，时代不一样了。大国关系早已超越了现实主义，谁都不可能是下一个霸权国家。中国不会是。相反，人类在气候变化、病毒侵蚀的背景下需要拯救的是自己。而这样的拯救，中美合作很重要。

英文版

I'm very glad to be here. It's very delighted to met Professor Li Cheng, Dr. Zack Cooper and other old friends again. The topic of this section is "the China topic in the US presidential election". I would like to express five oints. 

First, so-called "China card" played by the two presidential candidates did not work. President trump in particular.

By criticizing China, he tried to divert voters' attention from its failure to fight the Pandemic, hoping to create an "enemy" of China to unite the American society. China is not fooled. "China" didn't become the No. 1 topic before the election day. The first topic is the new coronavirus and the personal scandal of the two candidates. China has not launched a fierce battle with the United States. Instead, it has reacted politely, and is not willing to lead the focus of American public opinion. At the same time, there are too many domestic problems in the United States, including political infighting, economic recession, social disintegration, racial discrimination，out of control of the Pandemic situation, and so on. This fully shows that the general election strategy of playing the "China card" has failed.

Second, President Trump's strategy of trying to fight a "new cold war" with China also failed. According to the four standards of the definition of "cold war" in the international academic circles, they are all-round confrontation, ideological opposition, two camps and "decoupling" of economy. But at present, the state of China and the United States is far from the new cold war. Despite Trump's every day pointing at China, China has maintained restraint. Except for the foreign ministry's forced response, Chinese leaders have been silent to the U.S. This is not to dare, but to have more strategic thinking and not to fall into a new cold war. Instead, China has been calling for cooperation between the two countries.

Fortunately, the two societies have been cooperating. The trade between China and the U.S is growing year on year, better than that in 2019; the amount of capital IPO raised by Chinese companies going to the U.S for listing in the first eight months exceeds the total amount in 2019.  U.S. assets (such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase) also have more holdings in China's financial market than in 2019. Behind this lies China's strategy of comprehensively deepening reform and opening up and the attraction of China's market.

Third, China-US friction will become the new normal in the next 10 years or more. I call it "competiration (competition-cooperation)". China has made adequate psychological preparations. China can understand America's anxiety. The US has long suspected that China will replace US leadership. Time will prove. In fact, China has always been a strong supporter of the international order led by the U.S after World War II. During the international financial crisis in 2008 and the new Pandemic in 2020, the situation in the U.S would be even worse without China. For example, in the past eight months, China has exported more than 40 billion masks to the U.S, more than 100 per capita. China is not afraid of the U.S, but hopes to use pragmatic actions to dispel the anxiety of the U.S.

Fourth, China does not expect to be a good friend of the U.S in the short term, but it is also unwilling to be an enemy of the U.S. China will not be the second Soviet Union or the second Iran. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979, China has been reluctant to regard the U.S as the enemy. Of course, China is unlikely to become an ally of Japan, Britain or Australia. China's strategy is to seek common ground while reserving differences with the U.S, cooperate as much as possible and compete in a limited way. China has the ability to defend its core interests. If the United States wants to suppress China, it will pay a greater price.

Fifth, the US strategy of treating China as an enemy will certainly not make the America greater again. There are many enemies of the U.S, including Isis and Al Qaeda overseas, as well as domestically the new coronavirus, ethnic issues, gun issues, Wall Street issues, and so on. Only by working hard to solve those problems will make America greater again. If China is suppressed, the U.S. economy will become worse and worse, its interests will be more and more damaged, and the international order will become more and more chaotic, which will only make the U.S smaller and smaller in the end.

At present, China has basically controlled the Pandemic situation. China's economic growth in the third quarter was 4.9%, the best in the world. China will become the world's largest consumer market in 2020. China is still an opportunity for the United States and the world.

American friends need to know that times are different. Great power relations have long gone beyond realism, and no one can be the next hegemonic country. China will not be. On the contrary, human beings need to save themselves in the context of climate change and virus erosion. In such a rescue, China-US cooperation became much more important than before.

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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